Draw No Bet – a Beginner’s Guide

As we know, gambling is not an exact science: even after we have applied all of our knowledge and done the most rigorous research, our predictions can still go wrong. That is why even the most experienced gamblers often need a “safety net” to cover bets that don’t go according to plan. These cover bets can range from simple hedging formulae to complex in-play systems and arbitrage bets. To give you an idea of how you can gain extra cover on a bet, we are going to look at the simplest example of all – Draw No Bet.

What is Draw No Bet?

You will see the words “Draw No Bet” in the betting options for football matches on all major bookmakers’ websites. The bet is pretty self-explanatory: if the game is a draw there is “No Bet” and you get all your money back. It sounds like a good deal doesn’t it? But remember, you can still lose if the other team wins.

Let’s take a look at an example

Example 1:

Liverpool (21/20 DNB) v Arsenal (5/6 DNB)

In this example, we might decide that, based on our research, Liverpool are likely to win the game. So, we would place a bet on a home win at 21/20 (1 DNB). The odds quoted are lower than they would be for a straight home win and allow for a refund in the eventuality that the match is drawn, giving you a safety net.

Match results:

Home win (1) – bet pays out
Draw (X) – stake refunded
Away win (2) – bet lost

 

How does it work?

It may seem very generous for a bookmaker to return your stake if your prediction does not come true, and this is what draws many novices to this type of “money back” bet. But of course, it’s not quite as straight forward as that. By lowering the odds on the predicted outcome, what the bookmaker is essentially doing is spreading your stake across the two outcomes. In the example given, you are basically betting on a home win and a draw. You can see how this works by learning how to place your own cover bets.

Creating your own Draw No Bet equation

If we take the straight match odds from the same game as before, we can learn how to cover the draw ourselves.

Example 2

Liverpool (15/8) Draw (12/5) Arsenal (6/4)

To make the equation easier we need to convert the odds into decimal format. You can change the settings on the betting company website to do this or use an online conversion tool.

Liverpool (2.88) Draw (3.4) Arsenal (2.5)

Now we can back Liverpool to win but cover ourselves in the event of a draw. We will use the following equations to calculate our draw stake and our win stake:

TS (Total Stake) / DO (Draw odds) = DS (Draw Stake)

TS – DS = WS (Win Stake)

So, if we had €20 as our total stake, our equation would look like this:

20 / 3.4 = 5.88

20 – 5.88 = 14.12

In this case, we would place €14.12 on the home win and €5.88 on the draw. Now let’s see how that translates into the possible match outcomes.

Match results:

Home win (14.12 @ 2.88) = 40.67 return
Draw (5.88 @ 3.4) = 19.99 return
Away win = lost bet

As you can see, if the match is drawn, we have covered ourselves and will get our stake back (give or take a penny). Now, we can see how our own system fares against the original prices offered by the bookmaker.

Example 3

Liverpool (21/20 DNB) v Arsenal (5/6 DNB)

We place our entire €20 stake on the home win at the price of 21/20 with the DNB offer.

Match results:

Home win (20 @ 21/20) = 41 return
Draw (No bet) = 20.00 return
Away win = lost bet

As you can see, by using the equation we can achieve almost exactly the same results. There could be a slight variation either way depending on which betting company you use but this shows you how the bookmakers cover themselves on these types of “money back” bets.

By learning these methods, you can develop your own systems for covering bets and create valuable safety nets for when your predictions do not go quite as planned.