Guaranteed Profits from Arbitrage Betting

Learning how to make a guaranteed profit from sports betting is the holy grail of every gambler. There are many systems out there that can give regular positive long term yields, but there is one tried and trusted system that, if used correctly, can produce a profit on every bet. Welcome to the mysterious world of arbitrage betting.

What is Arbitrage betting?

Arbitrage betting is a technique that has been used for many years by professional financial traders around the world. The system involves betting on all outcomes of an event in a way that guarantees a profit, whatever the result. The concept is simple but it can take some serious mathematical know-how to identify bets and calculate the stakes. As a result, an arbitrage sport betting attracts those that may not even have an interest in sport.

How does it work?

When you place a regular bet with an online betting company, you might back one outcome. Or sometimes, you might also back a second outcome as a cover bet, but you could still end up with a loss. If you back every outcome on the same event with the same bookmaker, you will always lose your money.

However, if you search for the best odds at different bookmakers, you can sometimes split your stake in a way that guarantees a small profit whatever the outcome. It is particularly useful in events where there are only two possible outcomes, such as tennis or basketball but it can also be applied to sports where a draw is also possible.

Arbitrage example:

• Tennis match between player 1 and player 2
• Player 1 is 3/10 (1.3) with bookmaker A and 2/5 (1.4) with bookmaker B
• Player 2 is 3/1 (4.0) with bookmaker A and 19/10 (2.9) with bookmaker B
• We bet €71.43 on player 1 with bookmaker B
• We bet €25 on player 2 with bookmaker A
• Total stake = €96.43
• If player 1 wins, we win €100 (€3.57 profit)
• If player 2 wins, we win €100 (€3.57 profit)

If we had backed these outcomes with just bookmaker A or bookmaker B we would have lost. By comparing the bets across different bookmakers, we can spot arbitrage opportunities and exploit the best prices given by each bookmaker. This means a guaranteed profit, whatever the outcome.

How to spot arbitrage betting opportunities

By always using odds comparison sites to find the best odds on an event, we can also get into the habit of looking for arbitrage opportunities.

We can use a simple equation to run a quick check on the decimal odds for the example above:

• (100 / player 1 odds) + (100 / player 2 odds) = total stake

In the example given, this works out as:

• (100 / 1.4) + (100 / 4) = 96.43

If the result is less than 100, we have an arbitrage opportunity and we also know how to split the stake by using the figures in brackets.

How does this happen?

There are always discrepancies between different betting company prices as the bookmakers constantly adjust their books to maintain a minimum risk situation. If they have received a lot of money on one outcome, they may increase the odds on another outcome to attract money to the other side of the book. This balancing act by the bookies can produce arbitrage situations. Betting companies can also have a simple difference of opinion on the outcome of an event or they might not use the same statistical modelling systems to calculate their bets.

Is it legal?

Arbitrage betting is totally legal and many people make a good living from using these systems. You can even buy software to help you find arbitrage opportunities in sports events all round the world. Some online betting companies even have arbitrage betting guides on their websites.

What are the drawbacks?

As with everything in life, there are pitfalls to be aware of. Here are a few things to consider before embarking on your arbitrage journey.

• Closed betting accounts: Your continued success may ring alarm bells with certain betting companies. While some companies are fine with arbitrage betting and actively encourage it, others may limit your betting activity or close your account altogether. A bookmaker is within their right to ban any customer they want, so being smart with your betting activity is important if you want to be an arbitrage bettor.
• Cancelled bets, mistakes and website crashes: An arbitrage bet requires a large stake for a very small return and failure to cover all outcomes could result in a significant loss. Bookmakers will sometimes cancel bets because of publishing errors and other mistakes, and that could cost you money. You could also fail to place a bet because of a website crash or an internet issue and end up out of pocket.
• Changing odds: Odds for sporting events have a life of their own and can change at any moment. Arbitrage bets may not hang around for long and you have to be quick as well as calculated to be successful.
• Bad mathematics: With small margins and limited timescales you have to be sure that your maths are up to scratch. A miscalculation could put a big hole in your profits.

How much money can I make?

As with all betting activity, how much you make will depend on how much you invest. With typical small returns of around 2-4% and limited arbitrage opportunities, you may want need quite a large sum of money if you want to make a decent income from arbitrage betting. There are punters that have turned arbitrage betting into a full-time job after starting with just a few thousand Euros in capital.

Should I start arbitrage betting?

If you are good at mathematics, have enough spare time and capital, and are calm and calculated in your approach to investing your money, arbitrage betting might just suit you. You could even invest in a software package to help you identify opportunities but you would need to budget for this in your start-up costs. This is one area of gambling that can guarantee a return if approached in a business-like and methodical way. If you are just looking to bet for fun, this is probably not the activity for you.