How to Improve your Correct Score Betting Predictions
Football is all about goals and bookmakers offer a vast number of goal betting options on every game. One of the most common types of goal betting is the Correct Score bet. This market is attractive for both its simplicity and also for the generous odds available. But how easy is it to predict the final score of a football match and is the market worth exploring?
1. An introduction to Correct score betting
The first thing to bear in mind is that Correct Score betting is not easy. There are so many variable factors that can come into play to make this market unpredictable. Once you start betting on correct scores, you will realise how frustrating it can be when your prediction is scuppered by a poor refereeing call or by a goal keeping blunder.
Some factors that can affect accurate score predictions:
- Own goals
- Wrongly disallowed goals
- Mistakes
- Red cards
- Penalties
Having said that, these unpredictable elements are all part of the game and any statistical research you do, will include goals of every type. It is also worth remembering that you could just as easily win as a result of a freak incident or unjust decision so don’t let this put you off. Instead, you need to look at ways of giving yourself an edge in this market.
2. Looking beyond the odds
At first glance, the odds on Correct Score betting look very tempting; with huge prices available for seemingly realistic score lines. Many punters will be drawn into backing scores of 3-0, 4-0 etc in the hope of bagging significant returns should the bet come in. With such big prices, there is also a greater margin for error: you just need the occasional big pay out to make it all worthwhile.
By taking this approach, you might get lucky and enjoy the odd big win occasionally but it unlikely that you will see any long-term yield. As with all profitable betting activity, you need to develop some kind of strategy.
3. What statistics should I research?
By looking a few simple statistics, you can start to develop a strategy to find the more predictable results.
- Historical league statistics: This allows you to find the most common score lines in the league that you are exploring. In many major leagues, around 70% of all matches will finish with both teams scoring 2 goals or less and around 50% of matches finish with the following score lines: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 and 0-0.
- Head to head results: Some teams have more common head to head results than others and this can help when predicting the Correct Score.
- Recent results: Recent results can give certain patterns that can affect our decisions. A team may not have scored many goals at home in recent games or another may have kept several clean sheets.
- Strong defences: Very defensive teams can be useful picks in this market. If we expect them not to concede, we just need to decide how many they are likely to score.
- Low scorers: Teams that struggle for goals also make good picks especially if they are also strong in defence.
- Corner count: Looking at a team’s corner record both in attack and defence can also help to analyse whether they are likely to score or concede many goals.
- Shot on target: Some teams that have not scored many goals recently may have just been very unlucky in front of goal. Check the recent shots on target stats before writing off a team as a low scorer.
- Type of competition: Is it a league game where both teams are desperate for points? Or a Champions League game where both teams just need a draw to qualify?
If you find a match between two teams that are good in defence but not so strong going forwards, then it would be a good game to pick for a correct score prediction. In a case like this, we could narrow down our likely potential outcomes to 0 – 0, 1 – 0, 1 – 1 or 0 – 1. Our finals decision could then be decided by looking at the recent form of the two teams and the past head to head results.
4. Choose the odds that are in your favour
By taking an analytical approach, we can compile a shortlist of games that we can consider for Correct Score bets. We can also calculate the most likely score line for each game. In addition, if we check the statistical probability of each score line, we can then examine which bookmakers are offering odds that are tilted in our favour.
5. Example
After extensive research, we decide that the result of a particular game is most likely to be 1-0 to the home team. Historical data shows that this score line has a 10% probability of occurring and should therefore be priced at 9/1. However, one bookmaker is offering 11/1 and the odds are tilted in our favour. Therefore, we place the bet.
6. Less is always more
Just because there are large odds available on predicting the correct score it does not mean you should expect huge returns. As with all gambling, the margins will always be fine and it is the application of your strategy that will make the difference between profit and loss. With correct score predictions you should expect to lose on a regular basis but your wins should be frequent enough to make a long term gain.
