How to spot Trends when Betting on Football

When we watch football matches, we all have an opinion about who is going to win. Sometimes we are so confident, we even put money it. However, when it comes to betting it’s not all about which team will win or lose – in fact, there are many other ways of betting that don’t require you to predict the winner of the game. The only thing that matters is that you give yourself the best chance of winning your bet – but how?

As football fans, our match predictions are often based on gut feelings or personal bias; sometimes we simply back the favourite and at other times we are sure of an upset. This is fine when you are discussing the game with your friends in a bar but when you are actually parting with your hard-earned cash; you need to take a more pragmatic approach.

Spotting the Trends

Placing a bet on a football match feels much more satisfying when you have done your homework and spotted a particular trend in the market. So what trends should you look out for? Let’s go back to the beginning and see how we would approach a very simple bet.

Example 1: Predicting the outright winner

When we are looking at the basic premise of predicting the match winner, it is very easy to spot trends. We can easily look at the form of each team by examining their recent results. We can then break it down further by looking at home and away form and at this stage we can get a good idea of which team is the most likely to win – but why stop there?

Many gamblers will look at the last six results for a team and then look back even further to see if there has been a significant change in form. They will then look at the head-to-head results and the results against similar opponents.

For example: you are considering backing a team may have won four games in a row but you notice they have only faced teams in the bottom-six of the table. They are now playing a top-six team so you check their recent results against top-six opponents and notice that they have failed to win or draw a single game this season. Do you still back them?

By going the extra mile when studying form, clear betting opportunities will start to present themselves and you will learn to minimise your risk.

Taking things Further

Once you become accustomed to seeking out trends you will start to see them everywhere. You will no longer just look at winners and losers but instead look at trends. Here are a couple of more examples:

Example 2: Bookings

There are many ways you can bet on bookings in a football match: Spread betting companies will offer you the chance to predict the total number of booking points and buy or sell units above or below this amount; you can predict who will win the first or last yellow card; and you can also bet on who will receive the most cards in total.

If you study the statistics, you may notice a team that has a habit of starting games at a very high tempo. Your research shows that this team draws the first booking from their opponent in over 75% of their home games. In their next game, they are playing at home against a team that has been booked first in 65% of their away games. You check the best bookmaker’s price for the away team to be booked first and decide that it is good value and place the bet.

Example 3: Goal scorer

Predicting the goal scorer is a very popular market and betting companies offer a wide variety of betting opportunities in this area. By examining trends closely, we can make an informed decision about whether to place a bet that might seem fairly obvious at first glance.

For example: You notice a particular player has scored in four of the last six games and you are tempted to back them to score again in the next game. The bookmakers are offering a good price, so you take a closer look at the trend. Further research shows that the player scored all the goals at home and has not scored away from home for over a year. The next game is away so you decide not to place the bet on this occasion. Instead, you wait a week and back them to score in their fifth home game in a row.

Bet smarter, win more

We can apply this kind of strategy to all kinds of bets by looking at the basic patterns and then delving a bit deeper to find the true nature of the trend. Some trends are not immediately obvious and others that appear obvious may be false. By cross referencing the trends against different criteria, we can see how well they stand up to scrutiny.

Once this practice becomes second nature, you will be well on your way to being a more successful gambler.